Chargers v/s Chiefs

American football (NFL): Kansas City Chiefs to win @ 2.45

Playing in front of a home crowd with 3 wins on the trot, one could expect the Chiefs to be the favourites here. The game should present an opportunity to square-off the position.

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Full-time update: Chiefs win!

In the third quarter there was an opportunity to square-off the position taken on the Chiefs. However, it would have reduced the profits on the game significantly.

Where's a pick-me-up when you need one?

It was one of those days when you feel down with the world, being Monday can't have helped. Then I came across this post on good-news that got me smiling again. We all have much to be thankful about and there's hope for us yet, thanks for the reminder Scott.

Happy halloween

This months payoffs on sports betting:: 13.4%

have called the result correctly 46% of the time, with an additional 38% results being squared-off. Hence, been absolutely wrong only for 15% of the games staked. Overall, providing a tax-free return (non-annualized) of 13.43%.

During the month, betting on Cricket has been the most profitable with a return of 22.82%. 

An apparent undersupply of good economics blogs

and curiously few blogs written by female economists.

That's the conclusion reached by Mckenzie & Ozler in a paper tracking the impact of economic blogs. They find that a research paper that is linked to on a popular blog results in a substantial increase in abstract views and downloads, with the bloggers becoming better known and more respected within the profession and also that blogs influence attitudes and knowledge. They also surmise that the reason why more economists don't blog is that even smart and very good economists can't easily do so without embarrassing themselves as the skill sets required are simply very different.

Abstract reproduced below (without permission):
"There is a proliferation of economics blogs, with increasing numbers of economists attracting large numbers of readers, yet little is known about the impact of this new medium. Using a variety of experimental and non-experimental techniques, we try to quantify some of their effects. First, links from blogs cause a striking increase in the number of abstract views and downloads of economics papers. Second, blogging raises the profile of the blogger (and his institution) and boosts their reputation above economists with similar publication records. Finally, we find that a blog can transform attitudes about some of the topics it covers."

India v/s England - Only T20

Got to love T20 for the volatility.

The match started with India as comfortable favourites @ 1.60 and England @ 2.25. The Indians won the toss and decided to bat first. It took 2 quick wickets (both openers Uthappa and Rahane) for the first squaring-off opportunity to present itself. A partnership between Raina & Kohli kept India in the game with the price on India to win improving. However, the Indian innings never really got going and it took all of Dhoni's experience to get them to a run-rate of 6.00 at the end of their innings, as a result England were strong favourites at the break. I've tracked the prices till the 8th over of the English innings to better show the price volatility during the game, but there were even wider spreads on offer till the 12th over (as high as 10.00 on India to win) after which the markets closed as the English batsmen made sure that the advantage earned by the bowlers was not squandered.

BBC Documentary on Pakistan

Moral hazard

Paul Krugman makes a valid point in this NYT article. Businesses need to be allowed to fail, that's part of the game. Just because an organisation is in the business of banking is no reason for it to be salvaged by tax payers. Imposing these salvage costs on taxpayers, while cutting back on their payouts in the name of austerity just makes voters paint all banks and bankers as evil Shylocks. Bailouts are bad news for a few reasons, (a) laying the seeds of future failures, bankers under stress to raise their returns will likely take on riskier bets knowing that a bailout option exists if things go bad (b) where's my incentive to be cautious and prudent (means earning lesser returns than the gamblers) during the booms if the guys who make mistakes don't get wiped out in the fall.

South Africa v/s Australia - 3rd ODI

SA to win @ 1.8; Aus @ 2.0

The series decider in Durban, offers a very tight spread. Won't recommend taking a position now. Once the game starts, Australia will do worse than the price here suggests and a more palatable price will be on offer. The Saffers are playing in Durban, not their traditional stronghold, and a series decider under an interim captain should definitely bring up a price that allows a squaring-off.

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Half-time update: SA 222/6
SA to win @ 2.75 / Aus to win @ 1.44

The spread widened before the game started and stayed flat for 12 overs, till Smith got himself out. The following partnership between Amla and Kallis lowered the price on SA again. However, the innings never really got going though SA were well set at the 40th over stage with only 3 wickets down. Steady loss of wickets in the death overs ensured a below par score. Right now, the price on SA to win looks generous, and I would expect the price to weaken before the 2nd innings starts.

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Full-time update: Aus win! In the 48th over and with 7 wickets down.

As expected the Aussies pressed home the advantage and won the match, though not as convincingly as might be expected. However, the 2nd innings didn't provide any surprises in prices as the spread continued to widen throughout. I haven't bothered with providing a graph here as it would only show a continuation of the trend above.

India v/s England 5th ODI

India to win @ 1.57

Almost a dead rubber match, other than England's desire to avoid a whitewash. If the Indian team want to return the hospitality extended to them during the English summer this might be an interesting match-up. I doubt anyone will be very up for this match, even the crowds might well keep away, wouldn't expect full attendance at Eden Gardens today. At the fag end of a disastrous tour, doubt if England have the stomach for a last effort, especially one that really wouldn't amount to a meaningful result. Expect the price to be below this for most of the match.

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Half-time update: India to win @ 1.44

A strong finish by the Indians, after an equally strong start. They almost lost the match in the middle overs, and the only reason the prices didn't intersect at any time is probably because India are playing at home. Given the target of 272 for England, the price should be much lower than 1.44 and is probably a reflection of a weak Indian bowling attack but i'll recommend taking a position at this price as it'll likely decline pretty soon into the game.

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Full-time update: India win! We're in the money.

Like India, England started well and the price moved against us till the 15th over. And in a repeat of the 1st innings, England had a collapse that let the opposition back into the game. However, the key difference from the Indian innings being that for the English there was no middle order stability provided at all.

India v/s England - 4th ODI

India to win @ 1.57

Currently at the wrong end of a 3-0 series tally, the tourists are seriously facing the prospect of a whitewash. However, I expect this England team to put up more of a fight than the price suggests. Will wait for the price to reach 1.75 before entering this space.

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Half-time update: India to win @ 1.16

Thanks to regular wickets falling the English never really got going. As evident above, the price on the English only came close to the Indian line when they were scoring at 5 runs per over with only 2 wickets down. As stated earlier, I was waiting for a better price than that offered at the start of the match. Got a decent price on India to win @ 1.80.

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Full-time update: India win!

England were very ordinary in the second half of the game. Their price line never really looked like it would bother India's. And yet again, the markets closed early, this time at the end of the 35th over. Horror of a tour this is turning out to be,Strauss must be glad he's not facing the mikes.

United at home

United to win / draw @ 2.25 / 3.00

Thanks to City's oil money the Manchester derby does offer better prices than previous seasons. United playing at Old Trafford can be backed to win. However, taking an additional option of a draw makes a minimum return of 25% a mostly safe bet.

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Update: market closed with 20 minutes to go

United started as the market favourite, but an early goal for City sent their prices tumbling. After the half-time break their problems got worse with a red card and two additional goals. By the 70th minute United were staring down the barrel at 0-3. The markets had enough and closed early.

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Final score: United 1 - 6 City

This one went horribly wrong! 

10% return!

New Zealand to lift the World Cup tomorrow @ 1.10

I must confess my surprise that the return on offer is a decent 10 per cent. No offense to the French team, but the All Blacks are playing at home. Even allowing for the fact that France knocked the ABs out of the last edition in 2007, this shouldn't really be much of a contest. I wouldn't be going out on a limb predicting that all the French have got to do tomorrow is just turn up and collect silver. Especially considering that France really shouldn't be in the final tomorrow. If it wasn't for the lone red card in the semi-final, it would be Wales against the All Blacks tomorrow and a much more interesting match-up on offer. I'll post an update at half-time, but I really expect the price to crash in the early stages of the match itself.

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Half-time update: NZ 5 - Fr 0

The French have made a good fist of things, must confess I got their ability to put in the effort all wrong. Further, they've managed to knock out one of the AB kickers. With Piri Weepu not in form this could end up being costly for the home side, especially with the scores so close at the half way stage. The graph above shows that the French actually started quite strongly, with the prices tanking only when the ABs scored a try. The prices moved the other way only when Cruden had to be replaced and this was mostly due to Weepu's 3 missed attempts at goal so far.

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Full-time: NZ hang on for an 8-7 win

Must say it got very tense there at the end, much nail biting happened. Have to hand it to the French, they gave the home fans a mighty scare. They made a match of it, what a final! The narrowing spread between the curves at the end indicate how crazily close it got. So we earned that 10% return after all, wasn't as easy as expected.

India v/s England - 2nd ODI

England batting first at the Feroz Shah Kotla stadium in Delhi in the 2nd match of the series. The opening price on England to win @ 2.1 was too low to take a chance with. Will wait for the price to move during the 1st innings.

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Half-time update

As evident from the above graph, the first half was just India all the way. The price lines for India and England barely came close during the innings, never mind an actual intersection.

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Almost Done!

The markets closed early, with over 60 runs left on the table. That's how badly the English are doing on this tour.

Go Wales!

The Welsh to beat the French @ 1.72 in the 1st semi-final of the Rugby World Cup

Obviously, I'd rather support one of the 'home nations' against the guys on the other side of the channel. But this really is an exciting and talented young Welsh side. I expect this to be a closely fought match and I'd normally have opened with a position on the underdogs and waited for an ebb/flow in the game to take a counter position. Accounting for the unsettled dressing room makes France a bad bet here. Only traditional cross-channel rivalry explains them beating the English last week, a result which was very much counter to French form in the tournament thus far. No such sense of purpose likely against Wales. The French have been in the rugby finals twice before, while Wales have never gone past the semis. For the small yet proud nation that the Welsh team represents, that's more than enough motivation.

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Half - time update! Wales 3 - France 6

This has gone pear shaped very quickly. For the first 15 minutes, Wales were very impressive and France looked disorganised. Then came a harsh red card for the Welsh, with a numerical disadvantage in the scrum and lineouts. Additionally, the second choice Welsh kicker has missed 2 opportunities. Instead of being 9-6 up, they're 3-6 down at half time. Wales seem to have lost the plot, rather than use the strength of their centres to target the French they keep trying to outflank the opposition, which isn't going to happen considering they are a man down. I don't see the Welsh recovering from this, so it looks like it'll be Blues against Blacks in the finals next week.

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Full time - Wales lose!

Thanks to a display of crappy kicking. It was painful to watch, it did look like neither team wanted to win. At least, they gave each other plenty of opportunities to come back in the game. All in all, this was a game the Welsh lost, rather than a win by France. The real final is tomorrow though, France aren't good enough to trouble either the home team or the Aussies.

CL T20 - 1st Semi Final

New South Wales to beat Royal Challengers Bangalore @ 2.1

This is a move made for a future hedge. I'll just wait for the market to move the other way and cover the position. Given RCB are playing at home, they are fair favourites to win but I do expect NSW to put up a fair fight. As long as they bat first and don't have to deal with the explosive RCB batting strength.

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Update 1 - RCB to beat NSW @ 2.5

NSW have put up a huge score after batting first. This would be a good moment to square off the earlier bet. Now I just sit back and wait for the result.

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Update 2 - RCB win!

A time to buy?

Looking closely at the Indian economy after 3 years of being away, a few points seem apparent:

• Runaway house prices
• Crazy inflation
• Weakening currency
• Rising interest rates
• Volatile stock indices (but trending downwards)
• Higher fuel prices
• Political crises

The above don't portend well for the Indian growth story (in the short to medium term). There may be some respite for the markets around the traditional Diwali holidays coming up towards the end of this month. However, if weaker than expected corporate results are reported for the quarter ended September 30, 2011 and / or there are negative world events things will get a lot worse.

I'd be bracing for:

• lower GDP growth rates - closer to 7% rather than the 7.8% being forecast currently
• weaker rupee - in the low to mid 50s against the USD
• higher non-performing asset declarations by the local banks for this financial year

Champions League T20

CL T20 - New South Wales to beat Chennai Super Kings @ 2.1

MS Dhoni really is having a tough season. After the dismal England tour, his Chennai Super Kings (CSK) are languishing bottom of the table in the Champions League. Curiously enough, in the final group stage game in Pool A - CSK are favourites to beat New South Wales (NSW). This definitely feels like a market anomaly that can be taken advantage of.

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Update 1 - CSK to beat NSW @ 2.25

Predictably NSW have started well and are now the favourites to beat CSK. I could let the initial position run, but considering CSK are playing at home with a semi-final spot at stake, will square off the initial position. Now we await a risk free return of a minimum 10%, unless the match is rained off.

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Update 2 -  NSW win! 

Suspended stock

Teknomin Aqua Exports (India) Ltd is suspended by the Bombay Stock Exchange for 'penal reasons'. No clarifications on what these reasons might be, but a cursory look at the company's annual report does raise some obvious questions.

The auditors report states that the accumulated losses account for 82% of the company's net worth. Teknomin made no sales during the financial year ended Mar-2011, against sales of INR 2.9 million in the previous year. In FY2011, income of INR 9.3 million (PY: INR 4.7 million) was mostly due to profit on sale of agricultural land of INR 6.2 million (PY: 1.2 million) with the balance of INR 3.1 million (PY: INR 0.5 million) from lease rentals of ponds.

Hatchery expenses incurred declined to INR 0.2 million in FY2011 as compared with INR 2.3 million incurred in FY2010. Most of the reduction in expenses has been due a significant decline in expenses on farm maintenance from INR 2.1 million in the previous year to Nil in FY2011. Not a very encouraging sign and indicative of likely lower revenue generation in the future.

Resulting profit in FY2011 amounted to INR 6.1 million (PY: loss of INR 0.6 million). Though there are no plans of making dividend payments or capital expenditures in the near future.

The company holds equity capital of INR 55.7 million, with no reserves or surplus and net fixed assets of INR 14.7 million. The accumulated losses are at INR 45.7 million (PY: INR 51.8 million).

Teknomin has no access to credit lines from banks and the unsecured loans of INR 8.4 million (PY: INR 14.9 million) are due to associate companies. However, the company does have cash and bank balances of INR 1.1 million (PY: INR 1.0 million). The company has dues to creditors for expenses of INR 1.2 million and no dues to creditors for materials and stores.

I wouldn't have much confidence in the company's ability to continue as a going concern, at least in the manner of a functioning business organisation. Revenues and profits are due to exceptional items and do not seem to be sustainable, while net worth is likely to erode going further as Teknomin does not appear to be conducting regular business / trade transactions. Any shareholders stuck holding this equity are to be commiserated with, as they are unlikely to see any returns either in the form of dividend payments / capital appreciation. It would be unsurprising if the BSE continues to maintain the suspended status of the company's stock on the bourse.

Killer apps

Niall Ferguson makes an impressive presentation about the structures on which the prosperity of civilisation is built. For a touch of 'cool effect', he calls them the required 6 killer apps.

Pumas v/s Scots

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Argentina to win against Scotland @ 1.72

Finally a satisfactory price at this tournament, considering the single digit returns on offer so far. The only result that wouldn't have gone according to forecast was the Irish beating the Aussies. The spreads have been so thin since Sept 9th that if you had called for the favourites at every test so far, the Irish upset alone would have resulted in a net loss to the portfolio.

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Update: that went well! :) Thanks to a missed drop goal attempt by the Scots in the closing minutes of the game.

The fall guy

It would be farcical if Kweku Adoboli goes on to become more infamous than Asamoah Gyan. He doesn't deserve the grief, definitely not in his native Ghana, and surely not in the world of financial services. He was likely just being rational (in the broadest possible sense) and ensuring that his bonus checks kept coming. If he was indeed getting away with it for the last 3 years, one must insist the authorities also jail the clowns who were his superiors. Bottomline - this is a colossal management failure.

Damned lists

Forbes just released a list of "The Five Most Dangerous Countries To Be A Woman", the company we're in is depressing.

Winning in Anbar

CPT Trav (may his soul rest in peace) should have got a medal just for this; he probably saved a few lives.

Here's a good presentation that gets the message across.

Buying Turkish Lira

I'd recommend buying any Turkish Lira you'll need for your holiday in Istanbul itself. The best quotes are available at the currency changers outside the Grand Bazaar, with the Sultanahmet kiosks a very close second.

Avoid the booths at the airports, unless you must, the prices at Istanbul's Ataturk airport are slightly better than those you'll receive at London City airport. The curious thing at the latter is that the Travelex booth you see before check-in offers a slightly worse rate than the Travelex booth in the waiting lounge.

The post office in London was the best price available in the city and was definitely more friendly than the other options.

Visa on arrival @ Istanbul

Thank you Turkey; for issuing tourist visas on-arrival to Indian passport holders (with an UK visa). Considering I made last minute plans for a holiday, I was basically looking at countries that didn't make you jump through too many hoops for documentation.

I arrived at Istanbul airport with some trepidation, never having travelled internationally without supporting documents. I need not have worried, the Turkish authorities were amazing. All I had to do was walk up to the visa desk and hand over my passport, the officer scanned the pages, found my UK visa, attached a Turkish tourist visa stamp (1 month single entry) on a nearby page and asked me for 15 Euros, no other questions and no harassment (if you travel on an Indian passport, you'll know what I mean). The entire process took under 2 minutes. One is required to have a return ticket and hotel reservation documents handy, so i'd suggest carrying these but they didn't ask me for them.

If you're thinking of going, start packing already.

Link to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (visa information)

Econ Rap - Fear the boom and bust

This is one brilliantly done video. If you are a student of economics, you'll like it. If you aren't, it's a fun way to be introduced to the great debate in macro.

Playing police

This story reminds me of an why I stopped flying with British Airways. Staff thinking like hall monitors and treating customers as potential offenders rather than being helpful.

I was at Dubai International Airport checking in for a British Airways flight to London. The check-in clerk took my passport and went quiet. He took an awful long time flipping through the pages. I offered to help him find the relevant page with the UK visa on it but he wouldn't even acknowledge my presence. I must say that since I had at least 3 older UK visas on that passport, I could understand if he was confused and I could have helped him find the right one, but he wasn't having any of that. By now, we'd squandered a fair amount of time, thankfully I had the good sense to reach the airport 3 hours ahead of my flight.

The check-in clerk continued to get more rude and obnoxious as this process of flipping through my passport went on. Finally the guy had the good sense to go talk to his supervisor, who was definitely in a higher IQ band. The supervisor asked me if I was going onwards from London to the USA, when I replied in the negative he pointed out that I had a valid visa for the USA and the clerk assumed that I was trying to go to the States without a ticket. To say that I was baffled would be an understatement!

Now I did have a few more valid visas at that point of time, why did he not think I was going to all those places too? To think we'd have saved so much time if he'd just thought to ask me that. I can tolerate a security official treating me suspiciously, but a client facing baggage handler! Now this is too much, any wonder I use different airlines now?

it needed a stand-up comic .....

..... to give us a sense of perspective on this overdone issue.

Editor! is that your 'stet'? Part II

More of the dismal editorial work, and this is from 'Sambit Bal, editor at cricinfo'.

"You can't be only a little guilty when it comes to fixing of any kind, and spot-fixing is even more virulent that full-blown match-fixing."

Editor! is that your 'stet'?

Bad editorial work is everywhere, and this is 'Jayaditya Gupta - executive editor of ESPNcricinfo in India'


"The crowd sighed; England were running - as much as Gatts could run - away with it and the Aussies, whom Calcuttans had taken to its their hearts, were seemingly staring down the barrel." 

ICC Cricket World Cup on MS Excel

The world cup will be upon us within a month. If you're geeky enough to keep track of the 40-odd matches here's an excel sheet to help you do so.

These pictures are worth more than a 1000 words

you'd need a warehouse to store a trillion bucks

The benefits of privatisation

and of course the positive spillovers of structuring incentives. 


Bounty hunters want some respect. The record shows that they’ve earned it.

Catching practice in the slip cordon

In all the years of watching test match cricket, I can't recall an instance of all 10 wickets falling due to catches behind the stumps. Mighty nice of the Aussies to not keep us waiting too long to see England bat. To think I almost wagered on the home team to score over 350 in the first innings. Good call there; but to make things even an opportunity to double up was lost by not punting on the Kiwis at home to beat Pakistan, damn!

The end of an era

When my generation started watching cricket, circa the 1987 world cup, the West Indies were a declining force in world cricket. We read enough about them dominating every other team for the previous 20 odd years, but it was hard to believe given their talent and form.

This was a time when the Australians set the bar and dictated terms to the rest, as long as i've watched international cricket the fight between every other team was always for second best. However, since 2007 there were signs that the Ozzie supremacy would not last, but that too was hard to believe.

However, watching the 2010-11 Ashes series one gets the feeling this is really the end of an era. As an ardent follower of the game, I realise the game needs a strong Australian side. Hence, happy as I am to see the Aussies taken apart, i just hope they come back strongly.

"Where is the American dream?" LOL!

The claim about the crumbling infrastructure is a bit rich coming from the Indian journalist, but Thomas Friedman raises all the usual points in an India referenced article.

Consumption haters

Apparently, the Japanese think it's stupid to spend. I could get on board this anti-consumerist band wagon all too easily. However, all jests aside, this might be a good time to start allowing some immigration.

Stand up, stand up, for the Saracens!

Saracens v/s Leinster @ Wembley
The home team lost a closely fought match 23-25, but the atmosphere and crowd were one of the best. And their theme song just sticks in your head.

when no one wants to take over

I guess one way of holding on to your job is to make such a mess of it that it scares off everyone except the very mad. In that aspect Zardari seems to be doing a top job.

"perhaps the world's most prestigious award", really?

you have to wonder what mainstream news editors do to earn a living. the committee in Scandinavia gave this prize to Al Gore & Barack Obama among others. that kind of track record has to dent the prestige a little.

Very very special indeed

Laxman's brilliance inspite of a sore back earns him deserving tribute

Tracking the kids

The New York Times believes "Though it may seem innocuous to attach a chip to our preschoolers’ clothes, do we really want to raise a generation of kids that are accustomed to being tracked, like cattle or warehouse inventory?"

I say it doesn't go far enough, we need to implant chips in the kids. If you disagree, lose your kids for a few minutes in a crowd and then let me know. I only lost track of a niece for a few minutes, and that episode was scarring enough.

Bullied today, bullies tomorrow

If history is a good guide, and she more often than not is very much so, the Muslims in the US should be a happy lot quite soon. Apparently every new community gets heckled, harassed and abused before they go on to become a part of the clique haranguing the later newcomers. Humans are such wonderful creatures, if there is a God, she shouldn't be too proud.

Neighbour

You've got to feel for this nation. From hope to despair, in the same newspaper and within 24 hours. They just can't catch a break. For a change there's some positive coverage in the western press and then it all goes back to being more of the same.

Modelling innovation

Swaminomics states "Jugaad cannot be measured, and so cannot be incorporated in economic models. That is why most economic analyses of India are incomplete." Pretty inspired thinking! Personally, i'll look forward to the day when the 'Jugaad Model' is being crammed by econ students.

Ode to the solitary man - Eddie Vedder

Society, have mercy on me
I hope you're not angry if I disagree
Society, crazy and deep
I hope you're not lonely without me

About time to 'think the unthinkable'

The Great Depression put paid to the Prohibition; the Great Recession might well do the same to the War on Drugs. Finally it comes down to the money, the state would rather have the taxes than the jail time served. When serving politicians are talking about legalisation there's only one way this can go. Glad to see there's some practicality and realism behind the thinking, which makes it more likely that this will come to pass.

In the words of Vicente Fox "Legalisation does not mean that drugs are good…rather we have to see it as a strategy to strike and break the economic structure that allows mafias to generate huge profits in their business, which in turn serve to corrupt and to increase their power"

Not exactly a Roman Holiday

Maureen Dowd writes on her experiences as a tourist in the forbidding desert kingdom. This is perfect reading as a pick-me-up whenever one feels depressed, knowing that an entire nation is living in the 8th century. I wonder, if the Saudis didn't have oil would we even know or care what they got up to?

Can we give them some vouchers, please?

Over 60 years after independence, and around 20 years since we gave up the socialist pretence and undertook market reforms there are still those who are 'suspicious of market solutions'. Get rid of the ration card, which ties the poor to the availability of stock in the Public Distribution System. Instead if they're able to use vouchers or food coupons to get what they want and from where they want it, you can bet your bottom dollar that the private sector will turn up to provide the services they need.

Dirty looking stones

Apparently, Naomi Campbell doesn't know her diamonds.

And of course, she doesn't keep the gift for herself, rather the stones are passed on to a friend so as to auction them off and raise money for charity. Intelligence and generosity, that must be why she's popular.

Friar Tuck was right

And it appears he wasn't alone. This is grain, which any fool can eat, but for which the Lord intended a more divine means of consumption. Let us give praise to our maker and glory to his bounty by learning about... BEER.

In the heart of India, the 18th century

and of course, how could you keep Arundhati Roy away? Nevertheless, it shouldn't detract from the fact that this is a disgrace. How is it possible that the state can't address the concerns of these citizens? Or track down and eliminate a renegade outfit that's not savvy enough to qualify as a rebellion? Plus where are these clueless agitators getting funding / equipment from? It's not like the poor they claim to represent will be able to pitch in with funds.

The Berlin Wall was brought down over 20 years ago, Russia and China have embraced and developed their own brand of capitalism. Yet our JNU educated commies still call themselves Leninists, Marxists and Maoists. Even the original reds would be laughing at this. These situations are gravy and fodder for these believers in a dead ideology. At least denying them an opportunity to pontificate should be a good enough reason to deliver some development. Also, how long before our friendly neighbours start funding / training the disgruntled forest folk.

We need to make sure we stop running people of their lands, rather get them electricity, roads, railways, schools, medical clinics. Recruit, train, equip and pay the local police well. Then we'll see how many vote commie or pick up a gun with the aim to cause disintegrate the Indian state.

Football & Finance

In sport as in life, regulators are always a step or two behind the times. The brouhaha about the disallowed English goal against the Germans seems to have forced even the bureaucrats at FIFA to agree to look into introducing some technology. This piece by Richard Thaler brings out a few parallels between the worlds of super sport and high finance. Considering how out of touch with everyday reality both these universes are, they have a lot in common.

PS: If FIFA needs an example one can only point to a cricket match in Calcutta much before video replays were available to umpires. Azhar was declared run-out, while everyone on the field was helpfully shown multiple slow-motion replays indicating otherwise. The good natured Bengali crowd promptly rioted and torched a section of the stadium.

Shiver me timbers!

Martin Wolf in an excellent piece presents a take on current political thinking in the US government that left unchecked could lead to a situation where the mighty USA defaults on its debt. Then we'll have a real juicy worldwide financial crisis. Of course, its not unthinkable for a sovereign to do so. They definitely won't be the first leading power to pull the rug out from under their creditors, nor will they be the last.

Ignored by The Economist

The Indian Rupee doesn't figure on the latest Big Mac Index. Probably because the franchise doesn't have a beef burger variety available for consumption in India. Replacing chicken for beef, and running through the numbers it seems the INR is undervalued by almost 65%. This indicates the PPP value of the INR to the USD to be in the range of Rs.15 to Rs.17.

Bad news for the NRI's remitting money to India, "Enjoy it while it lasts. The Rupee is headed just one way, and that's against you". :)

The freedom to be wrong

This fundamental right / privilege goes a long way in making the culture of the USA so appealing to a lot of people elsewhere. The thought process that went into making it so is evident here.

Consider the words spoken by Benjamin Franklin just before he appended his name to the most famous piece of parchment in American history. “I confess there are several parts of this Constitution which I do not at present approve,” Franklin said, “but I am not sure that I shall never approve them. For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged by better information, or fuller consideration, to change opinions even on important subjects, which I once thought right, but found to be otherwise.”

Shhh! The guest is reading a sleep manual

At one time, the stereotype of a business traveler checking into a hotel in a distant city was a boisterous fellow with wine, women and song on his mind. Now the universal craving that hotels seek to satisfy is for something considerably more urgent: a night of true, deep shuteye, with no distractions.

Looks to me that we've all just grown old. What would we rather do on most evenings? That's right, try and get a good night's sleep.

The English (speaking) are everywhere

and they're likely taking over in the not so distant future. The urban elite in most places have a tendency to avoid the public school system. In the developing world this often means moving to a non-native language based curriculum. And it seems parents from all classes prefer this, most don't only if they can't afford a private education.

The linguistic nationalists must take heart, its nothing personal. Just hard to fault the parents for the economics and rationale of the superior quality of life that knowledge of the English language affords anyone in this day and age.

"He's my secretary"

Now here's some girl power. Stories such as these aren't told often enough.

more on the veil, but here's a surprise

Seems there's a covert curb on the veil in Syria. With an immediate roll-out in the education system, affecting 1200 teachers.

Another pearl in the string

Here's evidence, if any was ever needed, of the brilliance of the good folk in charge of long-term strategy within the Chinese government. Though it seems unclear whether this potential client state has any idea what they're getting into.

Are we all racists?

Apparently not; it seems we struggle to do business with people who look different, that may not be because we dislike them, but because we simply don’t know quite how to begin.
There's hope for us all.

Guangzhou to Gazipur

A floating (possibly) currency, increasing wages, labour unrest and pronto the production shifts. How long before we start talking about the 'Taka Price'?

Let them eat apples

Not exactly a Marie Antoinette moment, but this state has been more trouble than its worth. I don't really care for the opinions and rationales on either side of the argument. As far as i'm concerned, they just provide another reason for the fundamentalists to attack the rest of us. They don't want to be a part of this economic unit, let them go, an occupational force is such a 20th century concept.

Though the stone throwing does bring to mind another flashpoint region.

Apparently the smart ones stay up later

Though the very dull aren't exactly hitting the sack at 6pm. According to this study "evening people are smarter than morning people"

Gandhi wouldn't be too proud

Nicholas Kristof believes that the Palestinians are waiting for the Mahatma. Judging from the present West Bank definition of peaceful protest, they might be waiting a while longer.

in defense of geeks everywhere

i do occasionally run the grocery errands, quite efficiently too. though the wife would still consider me a card holding member of the 'Can't Find Shit' club.  Now thanks to Scott Adams we know it isn't a super exclusive club.

another moment of hubris?

I get wary whenever i hear "the largest in history", and words of its ilk. This latest public offering from the Chinese government seems to be in keeping with its sentiment of taking money off gullible investors / sovereign wealth funds. The below snippets do not portend a good omen. This may well be a case of 'caveat emptor'.

In 1998, the Beijing government spent 270 billion renminbi, then worth about $33 billion, to recapitalize the nation’s four big banks. It then bought up 346 billion renminbi ($50.9 billion) in worthless loans from the Agricultural Bank.

The bailout did not take. In 2006, auditors said they had found fraudulent deals at the Agricultural Bank totaling 60.3 billion renminbi ($7.5 billion). In 2008, with nonperforming loans composing almost a quarter of the bank’s assets, the government pumped $19 billion more into Agricultural Bank, then assumed another 800 billion renminbi ($120 billion) in bad loans.


However, here's a more balanced viewpoint.

Shifting the production

"Growers continue to find the weak links in the enforcement chain. In 1995 Peru and Bolivia were the world’s top cocaine producers. Much blood and money was spent driving the trade out of those countries and, inadvertently, into Colombia (see chart). In 1999 America sponsored a big anti-drug programme in Colombia. As a result, growers have moved back: in the past decade, the area used for coca rose by 55% in Peru and 42% in Bolivia. Until legalisation, the only thing you can do is make it someone else’s problem.”

And till then, the futile 'war on drugs' seems likely to continue, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Menlo Park -> Edison -> "Gujjuland"?

For every westerner who asked me if there were a billion brilliant Indians waiting to invade their shores, I can't do better than point you to Joel Stein's humorous, if racist, diatribe about Indian immigration. 

For a while, we assumed all Indians were geniuses. Then, in the 1980s, the doctors and engineers brought over their merchant cousins, and we were no longer so sure about the genius thing. In the 1990s, the not-as-brilliant merchants brought their even-less-bright cousins, and we started to understand why India is so damn poor.


HT: Wafa Hakim Orman

Admirably practical

You've got to admire the realism inherent here. 

In a nation recovering from centuries of colonial and feudal oppression, fighting corruption is secondary. Unfortunately true, but at least RTI represents a step in the right direction.

i'd rather have the money please

http://www.economist.com/node/16439185?story_id=16439185&frsc=scn/fb/wl/ar/bhopal
I never did understand the misplaced anger on the former executives who've been sentenced to jail time. Them serving time won't help the victims; and a trade-off between jail time and higher compensation should be acceptable to most. Of course, this doesn't take away from the embarrassment that is the Indian judicial system that took 26 years to even get to this point. If the oil-spill was happening off the coast of Bombay, BP wouldn't be half as bothered.

The Economics of Gold-Digging

Old story, though still good for a laugh. especially love this line

"maybe economists just care so little about human relationships that it’s not worth the trouble to try to acquire a trophy wife"

famous last words? or just hubris?

"It turns out, by the way, that oil rigs today generally don't cause spills," the president said. "They are technologically very advanced." That's the Nobel Pfaff Prize winner for you. Eighteen days later, the Deepwater Horizon rig went off like a bomb. Will the Swedes at least ask for the medallion to be returned now? 


HT: Wafa Hakim Orman

320 deaths every day!

That number has just got to be unacceptable, period. and India seem's to achieve it with far fewer vehicles per capita than quite a few other nations. 


These are the two most telling statements in this article - "Evidence of road accidents seems to be everywhere in urban India." and "it is rare to meet someone in urban India who has not lost a family member, friend or colleague on the road." 


I've seen the signs myself quite a few times and know too many people who've died in road accidents. I used to ride a motorcycle for over 10 years on those very streets. Having witnessed traffic in other parts of the world, now I wouldn't dare get on a two-wheeler. 


Seems like things have just got worse. Depressing!

location is as important as ever

very true. tim harford with an excellent piece on the mystery of knowledge 'in the very air'

also, this kind of stuff is exactly why i'm leaving Dubai to move to London.

Of course, its all the fault of the bankers!

These sweet people who willingly signed refinancing deals when the times were good could never be blamed. There are so many things wrong about this story, I don't know where to begin. Its tales of such stupidity that really get my goat. When borrowers bend rules to get out of paying their fair due, its all good. No one likes Shylock, very understandable but please then don't stand around in wonder when the lending dries up.

Policing for Profit

Seems like George W Bush privatised the local police forces too ;)

Profit seeking policemen, defendants assumed guilty until proven innocent, use of overwhelming force, legal harassment, arresting bystanders, etc. Sounds like a caricature of a third world police force.

Also, the bit about 33% of all currency carrying traces of drugs is highly amusing.

Use the market for a solution, brilliant!

It will be difficult to find a better example of effecting change by using market participants efficiently. Always go after consumers rather than producers. Why? Simple fact of the matter is that if demand exists, someone somewhere will satisfy it. Shift demand / taste and you are closer to the cultural shift you aim for.

Six people attended!

Yes, that's right. 6 people paid $300 for the privilege of listening to this guy speak. I wonder, do the folks who can't wait to get on the next flight to the USA even know about these stories. This is a land where Sarah Palin roams free, evolution is questioned and guns are allowed into bars. Rock on!

Can I have a back dated bonus now please?

A few years ago, this deal found its way to my desk. I'd have the opportunity to be the lead manager. A brief study of the financials didn't make for happy reading and I politely said 'No, Thank you' and walked away. Considering this is a $40 million sized hole I played a part in averting, it would be terribly nice if everyone who mocked me then could stand up and applaud now. :)

The Kingdom

This has definitely been one of the best movies i've seen in a while. Well worth a watch, and highly recommended. No unnecessary drama, brilliant acting, tight editing and no philosophising on the underlying problem; this film just deals with the reality of life in the aftermath of a terror attack.

Home of the brave?

Sure sounds like it, seems like you'll need balls of steel just to get out of your house and wash your car. Amazing that of all the fascination there exists for moving to the States, I never hear about this culture of violence being a concern.

the good German?

frugality, work ethic, adherence to rules, etc.

The German philosophy on money / wealth sound positively South-Indian

Pride goeth before the fall

Is it possible that at some time in the near future, this is the moment they'll look back at and wonder why they spent 4 billion greenbacks?

If it's really going to cost twice as much as the Olympics, must say Beijing is winning this contest between the cities. It can't really be coincidental that really preposterous ideas look logical just before the party tapers off, Dubai anyone?

If Greece was a Corporation....

dodgy accounting, excessive leverage, union trouble, unclear access to lines of credit - sounds like one in need of a bailout.

Greece’s fiscal woes would be serious but probably manageable if the Greek economy’s prospects for the next few years looked even moderately favorable. But they don’t. Earlier this week, when it downgraded Greek debt, Standard & Poor’s suggested that the euro value of Greek G.D.P. may not return to its 2008 level until 2017, meaning that Greece has no hope of growing out of its troubles.

Geographic factors

If this is not an advert for not buying a house unless you plan to live there for the rest of your life, I don't know what is.

Ten percentage points separate the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. But the property crash is making it much harder for Americans to move to where the jobs are. A quarter of mortgage borrowers owe more than their houses are worth. Many people are stuck in places with poor employment prospects, unable to leave for cities where their skills may be in demand. Although the economy is starting to create new and often highly remunerative jobs, they are out of reach to those who cannot move.

Lazy bureaucrat, or just prejudiced?

Sometime in the late 1800's a British Raj file-pusher took the easy option of branding an entire people, rather than doing some leg work to find cause and effect. Fallout of that is, there's way too many wrongs done against these people. Instead of trying to get into villages, they really should be going elsewhere, and I can't help but think their only redemption lies in the anonymity of the city.

Who'll watch the watchers?

This is a fine example to persuade those who'd have greater government oversight in our everyday lives. The notion of a benevolent government looking after our best interests and protecting us from profit seeking locusts may well be a worthwhile one; but the reality is the government man doing the job is just another fallible human being.

Delegation gone wrong

Something a wise man told me once, you can delegate the work not the responsibility. This case of the Chinese Godfather is a case in point, and also a reminder to recruit carefully.

Not for a minute am I glorifying their lifestyles or modus operandi, but a lesson / parable is almost anywhere.

Economics: Sexiest Trade Alive

"We'd like to say it's because economics is so interesting and because economists are so handsome and intelligent,"


Oh yea! :)
This makes all those hours in libraries worth it.

This is why i gave up on development economics

“Microcredit should be seen as an opportunity to help people get out of poverty in a business way, but not as an opportunity to make money out of poor people.”

I can't believe they gave this 'intellectual giant' a Nobel, but then again these guys also gave Al Gore and Barack Obama one of these medallions each, so its in keeping with trend.

The best motivation is the profit incentive, if the big banks make money out of these projects its more than likely they'll keep at it and lend more. If this was a charity project, i wouldn't count on it lasting too long. I can understand the counter-intuitiveness of this concept being beyond the lay folk, but apparently its out of bounds for Nobel winners too.

Free the slaves

I had trouble accepting the fact that slavery exists in the 21st century. It always seemed like a topic for a history text, not contemporary debate. Its a point made even by Dr. Kevin Bales in his TED talk here. After listening to Siddharth Kara i'd gotten curious about this economic system and realised that there's a whole world out there that most people aren't aware of.

What a waste of life!

The headline on this article is actually quite sensationalist and misleading.


These politically motivated suicides aren't for a separatist cause, they just want their own administrative region within the Indian nation. However, the article does highlight the idiocy of some of these 'martyrs'. The most annoying bit was about Mr. Sunil Kumar, whose family lost their biggest breadwinner. And this after they sacrificed so much to get him in that position. 

When will they ever learn?

I really like Rule # 2 (though i'd have made it rule #1)

Wannabe regime changers should really have an advisor on historical perspective, since everyone of these guys seem to make the same mistake of raising a beast that turns around and bites the hand that feeds.

Though i'd suppose it to be common sense to not get into a fight you don't need to. A fight that leads to a pyrrhic victory and a blood-letting situation you can't get out of should really be left alone.

Looking at how Af-Pak is turning out, am beginning to appreciate the Indian (lack of) response to terror attacks. Much better to be picking up the pieces and carrying on with your life, than stuck in some wild land for so long your forces/public don't recall the reasons they're putting their lives on the line. Especially when your ostensible allies feel more confident running you down in public.

Replace the names and places, it could be urban India

Police brutality, civic harassment of street vendors, mysterious (custodial) deaths, citizenry scuffling with the cops, also the occasional riot. When even the official government propaganda machines sides with the long suffering, the authorities should realise they went a tad too far.

I've never understood this bit about getting civic authorities and cops hassling vendors, who provide a service that urban dwellers value. I'm from Bombay, i understand encroachment better than most, but there has to be a better solution. One that doesn't involve greasing palms, would be spot on.

Happy to have a job; and they're happy to have you

The recovery is very likely going to be slow and long; while employment figures will probably take even longer to adjust to anything we've grown to accept as an acceptable level. So if this recession does one good thing, it'll be making good talent available to smaller businesses. The pre-recession attitude that most well qualified and experienced employees had of having to work only at marquee brand firms has definitely been surrendered to the pragmatism of making ends meet. This will most likely lead to a more competitive economy as talent that's previously trained at the top-tier firms percolate through the small and medium sized business space.

"They just get chill"

California appears to be considering legalising marijuana. The issue has its pros and cons, however i'd be inclined to support the agenda considering they're making a case based on economics / finances. This is one state that could really use the taxes that sales would bring in, especially since it absolutely cannot afford the 'war on drugs'.

You learn something new everyday

I've had my share of being stuck behind slow people at checkout lines, especially older people. I'm not proud of my initial reactions at such times.

The saving grace is it took an economist to help me look at these instances from a whole new perspective. Everyone does add some value of their own to the world.

Thank you Tim Harford.

The hidden histories that shape the way we live now

"history is not the only thing that matters. But matter it does"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/126dee4c-2599-11df-9bd3-00144feab49a.html