Saturday, October 22, 2011

10% return!

New Zealand to lift the World Cup tomorrow @ 1.10

I must confess my surprise that the return on offer is a decent 10 per cent. No offense to the French team, but the All Blacks are playing at home. Even allowing for the fact that France knocked the ABs out of the last edition in 2007, this shouldn't really be much of a contest. I wouldn't be going out on a limb predicting that all the French have got to do tomorrow is just turn up and collect silver. Especially considering that France really shouldn't be in the final tomorrow. If it wasn't for the lone red card in the semi-final, it would be Wales against the All Blacks tomorrow and a much more interesting match-up on offer. I'll post an update at half-time, but I really expect the price to crash in the early stages of the match itself.

Half-time update: NZ 5 - Fr 0
The French have made a good fist of things, must confess I got their ability to put in the effort all wrong. Further, they've managed to knock out one of the AB kickers. With Piri Weepu not in form this could end up being costly for the home side, especially with the scores so close at the half way stage. The graph above shows that the French actually started quite strongly, with the prices tanking only when the ABs scored a try. The prices moved the other way only when Cruden had to be replaced and this was mostly due to Weepu's 3 missed attempts at goal so far.

Full-time: NZ hang on for an 8-7 win

Must say it got very tense there at the end, much nail biting happened. Have to hand it to the French, they gave the home fans a mighty scare. They made a match of it, what a final! The narrowing spread between the curves at the end indicate how crazily close it got. So we earned that 10% return after all, wasn't as easy as expected.

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