Thursday, October 27, 2011

South Africa v/s Australia - 3rd ODI

SA to win @ 1.8; Aus @ 2.0

The series decider in Durban, offers a very tight spread. Won't recommend taking a position now. Once the game starts, Australia will do worse than the price here suggests and a more palatable price will be on offer. The Saffers are playing in Durban, not their traditional stronghold, and a series decider under an interim captain should definitely bring up a price that allows a squaring-off.

Half-time update: SA 222/6
SA to win @ 2.75 / Aus to win @ 1.44
The spread widened before the game started and stayed flat for 12 overs, till Smith got himself out. The following partnership between Amla and Kallis lowered the price on SA again. However, the innings never really got going though SA were well set at the 40th over stage with only 3 wickets down. Steady loss of wickets in the death overs ensured a below par score. Right now, the price on SA to win looks generous, and I would expect the price to weaken before the 2nd innings starts.

Full-time update: Aus win! In the 48th over and with 7 wickets down.

As expected the Aussies pressed home the advantage and won the match, though not as convincingly as might be expected. However, the 2nd innings didn't provide any surprises in prices as the spread continued to widen throughout. I haven't bothered with providing a graph here as it would only show a continuation of the trend above.

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