Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Carling Cup Quarterfinals - Arsenal v/s Manchester City

I really should have taken a position on City to win / draw; but didn't considering Arsenal were playing at home. The only player on the field who noticed the home fans was probably Nasri, as he got booed everytime he got anywhere near the ball. The usually sedate Arsenal home crowd was in good voice throughout the game just for heckling him. Anyways, the movement of the spreads doesn't show it, but the match flowed both ways, with both teams having opportunities to get ahead. Only a late defensive lapse by Arsenal led to their exit here.

Prices on Arsenal to win reached ridiculous levels (upwards of 30.00) after City scored the only goal in the game.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Arsenal v/s Borussia Dortmund

Arsenal to win / draw @ 1.5

The gunners really should seal their spot in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League with a win at home.

Half-time update: 0-0
The price doesn't really reflect the Germans efforts so far. The visitors have done well to pierce the Arsenal defense on quite a few occasions. Their supporters have also been in better voice than the usual insipid home crowd at the Emirates.

Full-time update: Arsenal 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund
The second half was a completely different game. Arsenal came into their own, scored 2 goals and (being Arsenal) took their foot off the gas to let the German side get a consolation goal, during injury time. I stopped tracking all prices by the 80th minute, and in fact the price on Dortmund to win became ridiculous by the 65th minute itself.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

England v/s Sweden - friendly at Wembley 2

England to win @ 1.80

After their very Italian style victory against the World champions last weekend, this English side should be odds on favourites for a victory against the visiting Swedes this evening. In fact, i'll go out on a limb here and state that the prices offered for a home victory are worth taking on and i'd expect these to reduce over the course of the match.

Half-time update: England 1 - 0 Sweden
The above graph of the prices tells the story of a one way match. The spreads took off after the 25th minute, thanks to an own goal by the Swedish. In fact, the spread should have been even wider with England at least 3 goals up. However, quite a few botched chances have kept the Swedes in this game and I wouldn't rule out an equaliser.

Full-time update: England 1 - 0 Sweden

The spreads continued to widen in the second half, though nothing material really happened. The English couldn't get another goal, and the Swedes had a few shots at the target too. I stopped tracking the price on a Swedish victory as early as the 65th minute; the runaway prices (at one point in the game it was over 100:1) were playing havoc with the scales on the graph.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

England v/s Spain - friendly at Wembley

Spain to win / draw @ 1.30

A weakened English side should pose no difficulty to the all conquering Spanish (Barcelona) side. Got to feel for Capello, chap's missing the wedding of his son for this.

Half-time update: 0-0 at Wembley

Surprisingly flat at Wembley in the first half. The Spanish have dominated possession but have nothing to show for their efforts as yet. They're looking more like Arsenal rather than Barcelona. I could fancy England to steal a goal here, against the run of play.

Full-time: Spain lose!

As surmised, England scored early in the second half and never looked in trouble after that. A little luck along the way did help, of course. As evident in the above graph, the spreads crossed as soon as the goal went in and got progressively worse. Tough on the world champions, and the Arsenal quip I made earlier turned out to have rung true.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Pakistan v/s Sri Lanka - 1st ODI

Either team to win @ 1.90 each

Pak host SL in their adopted home ground in the UAE. The markets are undecided on a favourite as of now, but I believe this match will swing both ways over its course. I'll post updates on the price movements during the game.

Early half-time update: SL bowled out in 40 overs
The price has just moved one way in this match. The Lankans kept losing wickets at regular intervals and never really got a partnership going. Its hard to see this game becoming interesting, but the Dubai Sports City pitch is a slow one and might well get worse during the 2nd innings. With 131 on the board SL are definitely quite a few runs short, but I wouldn't put it past Pakistan to have a batting collapse.

Full-time update: SL lose!

The spread just got progressively wider, as the Pakistanis never got their foot of the accelerator. Good win for the guys in green to start the series, and it should pull in a few more of their supporters to the grounds. On the plus side, the prices for the next game will be better than those at the start of this one.