Shiver me timbers!

Martin Wolf in an excellent piece presents a take on current political thinking in the US government that left unchecked could lead to a situation where the mighty USA defaults on its debt. Then we'll have a real juicy worldwide financial crisis. Of course, its not unthinkable for a sovereign to do so. They definitely won't be the first leading power to pull the rug out from under their creditors, nor will they be the last.

Ignored by The Economist

The Indian Rupee doesn't figure on the latest Big Mac Index. Probably because the franchise doesn't have a beef burger variety available for consumption in India. Replacing chicken for beef, and running through the numbers it seems the INR is undervalued by almost 65%. This indicates the PPP value of the INR to the USD to be in the range of Rs.15 to Rs.17.

Bad news for the NRI's remitting money to India, "Enjoy it while it lasts. The Rupee is headed just one way, and that's against you". :)

The freedom to be wrong

This fundamental right / privilege goes a long way in making the culture of the USA so appealing to a lot of people elsewhere. The thought process that went into making it so is evident here.

Consider the words spoken by Benjamin Franklin just before he appended his name to the most famous piece of parchment in American history. “I confess there are several parts of this Constitution which I do not at present approve,” Franklin said, “but I am not sure that I shall never approve them. For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged by better information, or fuller consideration, to change opinions even on important subjects, which I once thought right, but found to be otherwise.”

Shhh! The guest is reading a sleep manual

At one time, the stereotype of a business traveler checking into a hotel in a distant city was a boisterous fellow with wine, women and song on his mind. Now the universal craving that hotels seek to satisfy is for something considerably more urgent: a night of true, deep shuteye, with no distractions.

Looks to me that we've all just grown old. What would we rather do on most evenings? That's right, try and get a good night's sleep.

The English (speaking) are everywhere

and they're likely taking over in the not so distant future. The urban elite in most places have a tendency to avoid the public school system. In the developing world this often means moving to a non-native language based curriculum. And it seems parents from all classes prefer this, most don't only if they can't afford a private education.

The linguistic nationalists must take heart, its nothing personal. Just hard to fault the parents for the economics and rationale of the superior quality of life that knowledge of the English language affords anyone in this day and age.

"He's my secretary"

Now here's some girl power. Stories such as these aren't told often enough.

more on the veil, but here's a surprise

Seems there's a covert curb on the veil in Syria. With an immediate roll-out in the education system, affecting 1200 teachers.

Another pearl in the string

Here's evidence, if any was ever needed, of the brilliance of the good folk in charge of long-term strategy within the Chinese government. Though it seems unclear whether this potential client state has any idea what they're getting into.

Are we all racists?

Apparently not; it seems we struggle to do business with people who look different, that may not be because we dislike them, but because we simply don’t know quite how to begin.
There's hope for us all.

Guangzhou to Gazipur

A floating (possibly) currency, increasing wages, labour unrest and pronto the production shifts. How long before we start talking about the 'Taka Price'?

Let them eat apples

Not exactly a Marie Antoinette moment, but this state has been more trouble than its worth. I don't really care for the opinions and rationales on either side of the argument. As far as i'm concerned, they just provide another reason for the fundamentalists to attack the rest of us. They don't want to be a part of this economic unit, let them go, an occupational force is such a 20th century concept.

Though the stone throwing does bring to mind another flashpoint region.

Apparently the smart ones stay up later

Though the very dull aren't exactly hitting the sack at 6pm. According to this study "evening people are smarter than morning people"

Gandhi wouldn't be too proud

Nicholas Kristof believes that the Palestinians are waiting for the Mahatma. Judging from the present West Bank definition of peaceful protest, they might be waiting a while longer.

in defense of geeks everywhere

i do occasionally run the grocery errands, quite efficiently too. though the wife would still consider me a card holding member of the 'Can't Find Shit' club.  Now thanks to Scott Adams we know it isn't a super exclusive club.

another moment of hubris?

I get wary whenever i hear "the largest in history", and words of its ilk. This latest public offering from the Chinese government seems to be in keeping with its sentiment of taking money off gullible investors / sovereign wealth funds. The below snippets do not portend a good omen. This may well be a case of 'caveat emptor'.

In 1998, the Beijing government spent 270 billion renminbi, then worth about $33 billion, to recapitalize the nation’s four big banks. It then bought up 346 billion renminbi ($50.9 billion) in worthless loans from the Agricultural Bank.

The bailout did not take. In 2006, auditors said they had found fraudulent deals at the Agricultural Bank totaling 60.3 billion renminbi ($7.5 billion). In 2008, with nonperforming loans composing almost a quarter of the bank’s assets, the government pumped $19 billion more into Agricultural Bank, then assumed another 800 billion renminbi ($120 billion) in bad loans.


However, here's a more balanced viewpoint.

Shifting the production

"Growers continue to find the weak links in the enforcement chain. In 1995 Peru and Bolivia were the world’s top cocaine producers. Much blood and money was spent driving the trade out of those countries and, inadvertently, into Colombia (see chart). In 1999 America sponsored a big anti-drug programme in Colombia. As a result, growers have moved back: in the past decade, the area used for coca rose by 55% in Peru and 42% in Bolivia. Until legalisation, the only thing you can do is make it someone else’s problem.”

And till then, the futile 'war on drugs' seems likely to continue, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Menlo Park -> Edison -> "Gujjuland"?

For every westerner who asked me if there were a billion brilliant Indians waiting to invade their shores, I can't do better than point you to Joel Stein's humorous, if racist, diatribe about Indian immigration. 

For a while, we assumed all Indians were geniuses. Then, in the 1980s, the doctors and engineers brought over their merchant cousins, and we were no longer so sure about the genius thing. In the 1990s, the not-as-brilliant merchants brought their even-less-bright cousins, and we started to understand why India is so damn poor.


HT: Wafa Hakim Orman

Admirably practical

You've got to admire the realism inherent here. 

In a nation recovering from centuries of colonial and feudal oppression, fighting corruption is secondary. Unfortunately true, but at least RTI represents a step in the right direction.

i'd rather have the money please

http://www.economist.com/node/16439185?story_id=16439185&frsc=scn/fb/wl/ar/bhopal
I never did understand the misplaced anger on the former executives who've been sentenced to jail time. Them serving time won't help the victims; and a trade-off between jail time and higher compensation should be acceptable to most. Of course, this doesn't take away from the embarrassment that is the Indian judicial system that took 26 years to even get to this point. If the oil-spill was happening off the coast of Bombay, BP wouldn't be half as bothered.

The Economics of Gold-Digging

Old story, though still good for a laugh. especially love this line

"maybe economists just care so little about human relationships that it’s not worth the trouble to try to acquire a trophy wife"

famous last words? or just hubris?

"It turns out, by the way, that oil rigs today generally don't cause spills," the president said. "They are technologically very advanced." That's the Nobel Pfaff Prize winner for you. Eighteen days later, the Deepwater Horizon rig went off like a bomb. Will the Swedes at least ask for the medallion to be returned now? 


HT: Wafa Hakim Orman

320 deaths every day!

That number has just got to be unacceptable, period. and India seem's to achieve it with far fewer vehicles per capita than quite a few other nations. 


These are the two most telling statements in this article - "Evidence of road accidents seems to be everywhere in urban India." and "it is rare to meet someone in urban India who has not lost a family member, friend or colleague on the road." 


I've seen the signs myself quite a few times and know too many people who've died in road accidents. I used to ride a motorcycle for over 10 years on those very streets. Having witnessed traffic in other parts of the world, now I wouldn't dare get on a two-wheeler. 


Seems like things have just got worse. Depressing!

location is as important as ever

very true. tim harford with an excellent piece on the mystery of knowledge 'in the very air'

also, this kind of stuff is exactly why i'm leaving Dubai to move to London.

Of course, its all the fault of the bankers!

These sweet people who willingly signed refinancing deals when the times were good could never be blamed. There are so many things wrong about this story, I don't know where to begin. Its tales of such stupidity that really get my goat. When borrowers bend rules to get out of paying their fair due, its all good. No one likes Shylock, very understandable but please then don't stand around in wonder when the lending dries up.

Policing for Profit

Seems like George W Bush privatised the local police forces too ;)

Profit seeking policemen, defendants assumed guilty until proven innocent, use of overwhelming force, legal harassment, arresting bystanders, etc. Sounds like a caricature of a third world police force.

Also, the bit about 33% of all currency carrying traces of drugs is highly amusing.

Use the market for a solution, brilliant!

It will be difficult to find a better example of effecting change by using market participants efficiently. Always go after consumers rather than producers. Why? Simple fact of the matter is that if demand exists, someone somewhere will satisfy it. Shift demand / taste and you are closer to the cultural shift you aim for.

Six people attended!

Yes, that's right. 6 people paid $300 for the privilege of listening to this guy speak. I wonder, do the folks who can't wait to get on the next flight to the USA even know about these stories. This is a land where Sarah Palin roams free, evolution is questioned and guns are allowed into bars. Rock on!

Can I have a back dated bonus now please?

A few years ago, this deal found its way to my desk. I'd have the opportunity to be the lead manager. A brief study of the financials didn't make for happy reading and I politely said 'No, Thank you' and walked away. Considering this is a $40 million sized hole I played a part in averting, it would be terribly nice if everyone who mocked me then could stand up and applaud now. :)

The Kingdom

This has definitely been one of the best movies i've seen in a while. Well worth a watch, and highly recommended. No unnecessary drama, brilliant acting, tight editing and no philosophising on the underlying problem; this film just deals with the reality of life in the aftermath of a terror attack.

Home of the brave?

Sure sounds like it, seems like you'll need balls of steel just to get out of your house and wash your car. Amazing that of all the fascination there exists for moving to the States, I never hear about this culture of violence being a concern.

the good German?

frugality, work ethic, adherence to rules, etc.

The German philosophy on money / wealth sound positively South-Indian

Pride goeth before the fall

Is it possible that at some time in the near future, this is the moment they'll look back at and wonder why they spent 4 billion greenbacks?

If it's really going to cost twice as much as the Olympics, must say Beijing is winning this contest between the cities. It can't really be coincidental that really preposterous ideas look logical just before the party tapers off, Dubai anyone?

If Greece was a Corporation....

dodgy accounting, excessive leverage, union trouble, unclear access to lines of credit - sounds like one in need of a bailout.

Greece’s fiscal woes would be serious but probably manageable if the Greek economy’s prospects for the next few years looked even moderately favorable. But they don’t. Earlier this week, when it downgraded Greek debt, Standard & Poor’s suggested that the euro value of Greek G.D.P. may not return to its 2008 level until 2017, meaning that Greece has no hope of growing out of its troubles.

Geographic factors

If this is not an advert for not buying a house unless you plan to live there for the rest of your life, I don't know what is.

Ten percentage points separate the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. But the property crash is making it much harder for Americans to move to where the jobs are. A quarter of mortgage borrowers owe more than their houses are worth. Many people are stuck in places with poor employment prospects, unable to leave for cities where their skills may be in demand. Although the economy is starting to create new and often highly remunerative jobs, they are out of reach to those who cannot move.

Lazy bureaucrat, or just prejudiced?

Sometime in the late 1800's a British Raj file-pusher took the easy option of branding an entire people, rather than doing some leg work to find cause and effect. Fallout of that is, there's way too many wrongs done against these people. Instead of trying to get into villages, they really should be going elsewhere, and I can't help but think their only redemption lies in the anonymity of the city.

Who'll watch the watchers?

This is a fine example to persuade those who'd have greater government oversight in our everyday lives. The notion of a benevolent government looking after our best interests and protecting us from profit seeking locusts may well be a worthwhile one; but the reality is the government man doing the job is just another fallible human being.

Delegation gone wrong

Something a wise man told me once, you can delegate the work not the responsibility. This case of the Chinese Godfather is a case in point, and also a reminder to recruit carefully.

Not for a minute am I glorifying their lifestyles or modus operandi, but a lesson / parable is almost anywhere.

Economics: Sexiest Trade Alive

"We'd like to say it's because economics is so interesting and because economists are so handsome and intelligent,"


Oh yea! :)
This makes all those hours in libraries worth it.

This is why i gave up on development economics

“Microcredit should be seen as an opportunity to help people get out of poverty in a business way, but not as an opportunity to make money out of poor people.”

I can't believe they gave this 'intellectual giant' a Nobel, but then again these guys also gave Al Gore and Barack Obama one of these medallions each, so its in keeping with trend.

The best motivation is the profit incentive, if the big banks make money out of these projects its more than likely they'll keep at it and lend more. If this was a charity project, i wouldn't count on it lasting too long. I can understand the counter-intuitiveness of this concept being beyond the lay folk, but apparently its out of bounds for Nobel winners too.

Free the slaves

I had trouble accepting the fact that slavery exists in the 21st century. It always seemed like a topic for a history text, not contemporary debate. Its a point made even by Dr. Kevin Bales in his TED talk here. After listening to Siddharth Kara i'd gotten curious about this economic system and realised that there's a whole world out there that most people aren't aware of.

What a waste of life!

The headline on this article is actually quite sensationalist and misleading.


These politically motivated suicides aren't for a separatist cause, they just want their own administrative region within the Indian nation. However, the article does highlight the idiocy of some of these 'martyrs'. The most annoying bit was about Mr. Sunil Kumar, whose family lost their biggest breadwinner. And this after they sacrificed so much to get him in that position. 

When will they ever learn?

I really like Rule # 2 (though i'd have made it rule #1)

Wannabe regime changers should really have an advisor on historical perspective, since everyone of these guys seem to make the same mistake of raising a beast that turns around and bites the hand that feeds.

Though i'd suppose it to be common sense to not get into a fight you don't need to. A fight that leads to a pyrrhic victory and a blood-letting situation you can't get out of should really be left alone.

Looking at how Af-Pak is turning out, am beginning to appreciate the Indian (lack of) response to terror attacks. Much better to be picking up the pieces and carrying on with your life, than stuck in some wild land for so long your forces/public don't recall the reasons they're putting their lives on the line. Especially when your ostensible allies feel more confident running you down in public.

Replace the names and places, it could be urban India

Police brutality, civic harassment of street vendors, mysterious (custodial) deaths, citizenry scuffling with the cops, also the occasional riot. When even the official government propaganda machines sides with the long suffering, the authorities should realise they went a tad too far.

I've never understood this bit about getting civic authorities and cops hassling vendors, who provide a service that urban dwellers value. I'm from Bombay, i understand encroachment better than most, but there has to be a better solution. One that doesn't involve greasing palms, would be spot on.

Happy to have a job; and they're happy to have you

The recovery is very likely going to be slow and long; while employment figures will probably take even longer to adjust to anything we've grown to accept as an acceptable level. So if this recession does one good thing, it'll be making good talent available to smaller businesses. The pre-recession attitude that most well qualified and experienced employees had of having to work only at marquee brand firms has definitely been surrendered to the pragmatism of making ends meet. This will most likely lead to a more competitive economy as talent that's previously trained at the top-tier firms percolate through the small and medium sized business space.

"They just get chill"

California appears to be considering legalising marijuana. The issue has its pros and cons, however i'd be inclined to support the agenda considering they're making a case based on economics / finances. This is one state that could really use the taxes that sales would bring in, especially since it absolutely cannot afford the 'war on drugs'.

You learn something new everyday

I've had my share of being stuck behind slow people at checkout lines, especially older people. I'm not proud of my initial reactions at such times.

The saving grace is it took an economist to help me look at these instances from a whole new perspective. Everyone does add some value of their own to the world.

Thank you Tim Harford.

The hidden histories that shape the way we live now

"history is not the only thing that matters. But matter it does"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/126dee4c-2599-11df-9bd3-00144feab49a.html

Acrostic ECONOMICS!!

Good work by Gordon Boronow, Assistant Professor, Nyack College

(HT: Greg Mankiw)

Ten Key Principles in Economics

Everything has a cost. There is no free lunch. There is always a trade-off.

Cost is what you give up to get something. In particular, opportunity cost is cost of the tradeoff.

One More. Rational people make decisions on the basis of the cost of one more unit (of consumption, of investment, of labor hour, etc.).

iNcentives work. People respond to incentives.

Open for trade. Trade can make all parties better off.

Markets Rock! Usually, markets are the best way to allocate scarce resources between producers and consumers.

Intervention in free markets is sometimes needed. (But watch out for the law of unintended effects!)

Concentrate on productivity. A country’s standard of living depends on how productive its economy is.

Sloshing in money leads to higher prices. Inflation is caused by excessive money supply.

!! Caution: In the short run, falling prices may lead to unemployment, and rising employment may lead to inflation.

Fighting corruption in India

Personally, i'm sceptical that schemes like these would work in fighting corruption but a honest attempt nonetheless. Corruption exists because of a lack of sufficient transparency and accountability, hence in order to get rid of petty corruption we'd have to figure out how to revise the incentives.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15393714

3rd grade economics quiz

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/a-third-grade-economics-quiz/

this would have been difficult for some MBA grads i know :)

and i particularly love the fact that the kid believes 'air-conditioning' is a Need

you want fries with that?

I for one can't wait for this technology to become as ubiquitous as the cellphone. And it will happen, if only because all the nerds designing this just want to go one up on the jocks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/27/books/review/Saletan-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&nl=books&emc=booksupdateema3

Neuroscientists teaching math

Makes one wonder, doesn't it about all the potential squandered away. If only enough of us got this kind of focus.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/health/research/21brain.html?pagewanted=1&th&emc=th

Anti-China communism

This is mostly about the Vietnamese reaction to cheap Chinese labour being imported by Chinese contractors. Honestly, i was very surprised myself when the Indian govt announced that it was limiting work visas for Chinese nationals. My first reaction was 'why would a Chinaman want to come to India'? Other than to read in ancient libraries, i.e.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/world/asia/21china.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th

Hans Rosling playing to the galleries

As if 2048 is good enough

apparently pigs are smart, but not vain

that puts them in the top quartile of humans, quite comfortably too

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/science/10angier.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

For Runaways, Sex Buys Survival

scary stuff

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/us/27runaways.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

glad to see reality is catching

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/realestate/11cov.html?pagewanted=1

an idea

http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14483896

TED Blog: How food shapes our cities: Carolyn Steel on TED.com

TED Blog: How food shapes our cities: Carolyn Steel on TED.com

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A nice anniversary performance

Economics videos

Someday the universities will put up all their lectures online. We live in hope.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/free-ivy-league-lectures-on-the-economy/

Brain Candy: newyorker.com

Brain Candy: newyorker.com

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A beginner's guide to Islam

http://www.usnews.com/features/news/religion/secrets-of-islam.html

GDC | Economist Conferences

GDC | Economist Conferences

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An Empirical Analysis of Street-Level Prostitution

A brilliant paper by Steven D. Levitt and Sudhir Alladi Venkatesh brings out some interesting facts.

"the willingness to absorb enormous risk for a small pecuniary reward, and the blurred lines between good and evil, where police extort sex and pimps pay efficiency wages."

http://economics.uchicago.edu/pdf/Prostitution%205.pdf

No green shoots here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession-anchored-just-east-Singapore.html

Apparently the world's merchant fleet is moored off South East Asia, looks like it'll be slim pickings for Christmas in the West

Did we learn any lessons at all?

Looking around at fellow bankers a year after the crisis came to a head, i wouldn't bet my money on it.

Diamonds aren't forever, apparently

An excellent report on the worldwide diamond trade and the post-Lehmann effect

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=adeU_YHAT0uQ

small steps to crime

http://bigthink.com/bigthinkeditor/do-prada-knockoffs-make-you-evil

Golden State

This song's been running through my head and i can't get it out, but i guess it could have been worse.

if you needed proof that all a government can do is waste away your taxes

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/15/technology/15speech.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

A brave new world

Us Now from Banyak Films on Vimeo.

Tales from the Crypt, indeed!

“I can’t sit home like this,” she continues, her voice rising. “I want to work. Lehman was who I was. I really loved it there. I was proud to be there.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/business/13lehman.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th

under the veneer of civility

we're all capable of extreme evil and glorious good

Lies, damn lies and statistics

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/96b4b086-9c10-11de-b214-00144feabdc0.html

Insufficient funds?

flee the country, you don't want to be in Dubai when the cheque bounces

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/12/world/middleeast/12dubai.html?th&emc=th

Malthus, here's looking at you

Luigi Zingales weighs in on the future of American capitalism

http://nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/capitalism-after-the-crisis

it's slightly longish but well worth the read

Go Africa, make Dambisa Moyo proud

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/08/african-entrepreneurs/

and what's the NHS staff up to now

and to think i had to wait 4 hours to see a doctor, maybe they were all 'lying down'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/wiltshire/8246197.stm

lupus and his ilk sure have come a long way

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/08/science/08dogs.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

Top clubs triumph on an uneven pitch

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8bb550b2-97f3-11de-8d3d-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

Chris Cook at the Financial Times makes an interesting point about immigration

Aa ante ... etc

this indecipherable song is strongly associated in my head with the mayhem that is the Ganesh festival in Maharashtra, you've been warned

Reach

This one is poignant.

A human failing to overstretch, an unnecessary desire for the ephemeral, and the seeker falls by the wayside while the prize flies away. Could have been a motion picture.

Voodoo Sacrifice

Awesome video, truly worth a watch.

Hard to question award, considering the overall story, theme, content and quality.

I could go on, but i'd rather you really watch this.

One world, one idea, one market

Go forth and globalize! 

All hail Alex Tabarrok

the man's a genius

and you've got to love the custom of currency being showered on him.

IE is dead, all hail the Chrome

There's really no other way to be getting online

Guinness Rugby

Truly worth watching.

Risque Beer

Excuse the French!

Don't you just love the financial crisis

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Tata-Group-hits-Bond-St-with-mega-floats/articleshow/4461586.cms

a good old genuine bond issue, backed by a bank guarantee no less

Rock on Dr.C

HT: Merrill

A good basic test

This was much fun and must admit i was more than a little apprehensive about taking this one.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/04/19/education/edlife/20090419EdlifeQuiz.html?scp=1&sq=economics%202009%20ap&st=cse

Thanfully, didn't do too badly.

War Games!

So West Point graduates are going to have to train on PlayStations now.

This is scary.

A desired future

Some people should be scared, very scared.

Ouch!

Even once is too often for an act like this.

Good ideas

This talk needed to be a lot longer.

No one wants to hear the truth, ever!

All hail Scott Adams, now!

Britain's got talent

Way to go, Susan Boyle!

Listen to her sing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY